CHANCE ASSESSMENT

What is chance assessment?

The bookmaker's and the player's most essential tool in the struggle to defeat each other is a chance assessment.

A bookmaker's odds are always based on a basic odds chance assessment, which is the bookmaker's estimate of the likelihood that each result of the event will "be a winner." The chances are usually stated as a percentage, which is then multiplied by the number of potential possibilities.

Oddsmakers are hired by the bookmaker to create these projections, which are often based on a detailed examination of the event in question.


Bookmaker chance assessment

To compute the odds estimate underlying a bookmaker's odds, you must first determine the bookmaker's theoretical payback on the event at hand.

This may be determined by adding the odds and outcomes for the event, for example, 1X2 on a particular match.

Example:

The odds for a match are as follows:

1 = 1,80

X = 3,00

2 = 4,50

Divide 100 by each of the odds, then add all of the subtotals together. The next step is to divide 100 by the sum you just computed. In terms of numbers:

Step 1: (100/1.80=55.56) + (100/3.00=33.33) + (100/4.50=22.22). = 111,11

Step 2: 100/111.11 = 0.90 = 90%

As a result, the bookmaker's potential payout on the event in issue is 90%.

You can compute the odds now that you know both the odds and the potential payback. This is accomplished by dividing the theoretical return (in this case, 90%) by the individual chances. In our case, this results in the following:

1: 0,90/1,80 = 0,50 = 50%

X: 0,90/3,00 = 0,30 = 30%

2: 0,90/4,50 = 0,20 = 20%

We at Tipya have developed a tool that does the aforementioned computation fast and simply. This tool may be found at https://tipya.com/en/betting-academy/chance-assessment.


Advantage of chance assessment as a player

To have a chance of making a profit with the bookies, you must catch them in their errors. Mistakes are made, but not as often.

Based on the idea that bets should have value (bet value), as a player, you should constantly assume what percentage probability a certain bet has of winning. You next compare your chance assessment to the bookmaker's odds, which, as previously stated, are also based on a chance assessment.

If the two estimations are sufficiently divergent, one of two things may happen: either the bookmaker is incorrect, or you are incorrect. If the former is true, it is referred to be a value bet, and you should always play it.

If you want to learn more about how to calculate your own odds, we suggest checking our chance assessment tool here.

 

It is difficult to find value bets

It's one thing to understand the idea behind what a value bet is, and quite another to identify a genuine value bet.

Bookmakers earn money by selling odds, and they know the majority of it, thus if you want to defeat the bookmaker, you must be an expert.

That is why we usually advise starting with a single sport and, if possible, a single league.

If you have specific expertise of a sport or have sources that can supply information that the bookmaker does not, it is a smart place to start. Because bookies do not devote as much time and money to lesser leagues and sports, you may use this to your advantage by becoming an expert in that specific subject.

However, even if you spend a lot of time looking for excellent bets, becoming a bettor is a lengthy process in which you will learn more and more as you go along, and you may have to constantly change your betting strategy in order to succeed.

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