BET VALUE

What is bet value?

Betvalue indicates the value of a bet, expressed in a ratio of odds to the chance that the given outcome holds. Betvalue is usually expressed as a percentage (e.g., 104%).

Betvalue talks about what, mathematically / probability, it can pay to play on a given outcome.
If betvalue is > 100, it is an indication that a game contains value, while a value below 100 got no value.

One feature of the betvalue concept is that, in theory, the players who are able to chance assess all of their bets will accurately get a total payout percentage equal to the average betvalue of all the bets they have placed. In practice, no one can make accurate chance assessments on all their bets, but it emphasizes the importance of always making sure bets on one's bets are over 100 - if you want to feel a refund of over 100, ie. wants profits on its games.

Value of a bet

You may have heard someone talk about value betting and the value in play. It has probably not been newcomers but more experienced players who mention it.

Value betting is the calculation of where the value in an odds is greatest in relation to the probability and chance of a given outcome.
The concept of value betting is far from new and untested. Valuebetting has been used for a long time. More often, however, it is the more serious bettors who take up and use value betting when placing their bets. The reason for this is that it is the same way that bookmakers use when they set the odds.

Therefore, if you use the value betting approach yourself, you can more easily identify the bets where the bookmakers are giving too high odds on a given outcome.

How to calculate a value bet

Before we take a few good examples of value betting, it's important to understand how you calculate the value in each bet.
First, you need to determine your odds estimate of the possible outcomes.

If we stick to 1X2, then here you need to determine the odds of whether the match ends in a win for the home team, whether it ends in a draw, or whether the away team wins. The total odds should add up to 100%.

You then multiply your odds by the odds of the given outcome. The result should be over 100 to be considered a value bet - i.e. there is value in the bet. If the result is below 100, there is no value in the bet.

Odds x chance assessment = Value

The more accurate and correct your odds are, the more accurate your assessment of the value of each bet will be. And you will be better able to find the bets where the odds are set too high in relation to the probability of the outcome.

Odds table for value betting

Odds Chance assessment Value
1.20 70% 84
1.20 80% 96
1.20 90% 108
1.25 70% 87,5
1.25 80% 100
1.25 90% 112,5

 

It can get a bit mathematical, but you can calculate the value of the odds yourself and see the bookmakers' odds on the different outcomes.
Before we delve too deeply into the mathematics, remember that although a 50/50 valuation should result in odds of 2.00 on both outcomes, you won't get this from the bookies.

So why not? You don't, because if you did, the bookies wouldn't profit from it. So if you see a 50/50 valuation would probably end up in odds around 1.85-1.90.

Your odds assessment will therefore not always give the same odds as those presented to you by the bookmakers.


How the bookmakers calculates odds

The first example is the Premier League match between Sheffield United - Liverpool FC, which was played on Saturday 28 September 2019.
Here the odds are 1: 9.00 / X: 5.25 / 2: 1.33.
The bookmaker's odds rating on the odds is therefore 1: 11.11% / X: 13.70% / 2: 75.19%.

If you estimate that the chance of Liverpool winning is greater than 75.19%, then there is no value in this bet.
If, based on your knowledge of the teams, their injuries, form curve, overall strength and other relevant information, you judge the odds to be too low, then there is value in the bet.

However, it is also important that you can assess whether there is any value in the game or not, because by far not all games have value for you as a player. This is where the concept of value betting gives you a real tool to see the difference.

How you can calculate the bookies chance assessment

In addition to calculating your own valuation based on whether the odds and your odds rating are above index 100, you can also calculate the bookmakers' odds rating on the various matches.

It might get a bit mathematical, but let's take another example.
Chelsea FC - Brighton & Hove Albion F.C., which was also played on 28 September 2019. Here were the bookmakers' odds:
1: 1.40 / X: 4.75 / 2:8.00 - This gives the following odds: 1: 71.45 / X: 21.05 / 2: 12.50

Although you are looking for an unknown factor in the equation, it is relatively simple to calculate back to the odds once you have the bookmakers' odds. You find the odds estimate by saying:

100 / odds = chance assessment

What is the pitfalls of value betting/betvalue?

The biggest pitfall when it comes to value betting is that you as a player let yourself be influenced by the odds in your assessment of the odds.
If you let yourself be influenced by the odds in your assessment of the odds, then the bookmakers almost already have half a victory, because then you are no longer objective in your assessment of the odds.

A good advice is therefore to make your odds assessment before you look at the odds on the match. If you strongly disagree with the bookmakers, you can always do further research into your odds. It is not necessarily the bookmakers who are right in their odds assessment.
This is particularly true in the smaller sports, where the general interest and media coverage is not as high as for the big leagues.

The only person you punish if you are sloppy and undisciplined in setting your odds is yourself and your winnings.

This leads us to the next pitfall of value betting, where you shoot wide and bet on matches and sports that you don't have enough knowledge about.
The classic example here is that you bet on the big favourites simply on the basis of their name, rather than having put in the important factors such as form, injuries, overall strength, the importance of the match and several other elements.


Bookmakers love players who jump on this bandwagon, because they're the ones who usually end up losing.


Is value betting only for professional sports bettors?

Valuebetting is far from being just for professional bettors. Whether you use it systematically or not, the valuebetting approach is always important to use when betting - even if you're relatively new to the game.

You can save yourself a lot of expensive learning money if you start thinking along the lines of value betting early in your betting career.

If you're a small-time gambler who makes a small-stakes game of fun once a week, then value betting is probably not for you, as your approach to betting is more fun and social.

Think chance assessment before odds

However, if you are tired of being one of the contributors to the bookmakers' revenue, then you should think about value betting and use it.
Start thinking about odds here when you try out the concept of value betting. From there, it actually comes more naturally that you calculate the value - worth, for your bets.

The more systematic and professional you are in your approach to odds, the more success you will experience.
If you want to get started with valuebetting, you can easily apply the given formulas from this article.
They are all you need mathematically to apply value betting.

Will bettingvalue guarantee profits?

No, value betting is not a universal yes/no when it comes to winnings. Remember the old cliché that the ball is round and anything can happen.
Where valuebetting helps you in relation to wins is that you can see whether an odds is too high or low in relation to the odds assessment, so you can more easily make the choices that weed out the bad bets.

There's a reason why many serious bettors use value betting when setting their odds. It's to weed out those bets where the bookies have deliberately set the odds too low in relation to the odds estimate, and they do this deliberately. They need to make money from it.

But so do you, and this is where value betting can help you to opt out of the bad bets and into the good bets where the odds are higher than they should be.

In the long run, this will give you far more good value games and thus increase your chances of more and bigger wins.

Every day, tipsters on Tipya post free value bets you can take advantage from. Click here to see current betting tips.

Go to betting dictionary list